A long stretch of elevated interest rates has likely produced another tepid three months of growth, experts predict ahead of the quarterly economic check up.

A slower economy is by design, with the Reserve Bank of Australia trying to weigh on inflation by encouraging more saving and less spending, lowering demand for goods and services and therefore making them cheaper.

Wednesday’s June quarter national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to show continued weakness.

Monday’s business indicators and Tuesday’s balance of payments and government finance statistics will help economists firm up their forecasts for national accounts, though preliminary predictions were grim.

National Australia Bank had a 0.1 per cent quarterly lift pencilled in, the same as in the three months to March.

That would take annual growth to 0.8 per cent. With the exception of the pandemic lockdowns, it would be the weakest annual growth since the early 1990s.

NAB senior economist Tony Kelly said another quarter of soft consumption growth and further declines in underlying business and dwelling investment were expected.

Such an outcome would have few implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mr Kelly said, as it would be only marginally weaker than they had expected.

An update on housing prices, scheduled from CoreLogic on Monday, will also be closely watched.

National prices have been moving higher of late, supported by strong growth in mid-sized capitals.

Also on Monday, ANZ and Indeed will release new job ad data for the month, and Melbourne Institute will drop its inflation gauge.

The national statistics bureau will release international goods trade data for July on Thursday and lending indicators for the same month on Friday.

RBA governor Michele Bullock is also lined up for a couple of speaking engagements on Thursday, at the Anika Foundation and the Women in Banking and Finance Awards.

There has been no shortage of communication from the central bank of late but Ms Bullock’s read on inflation data and other releases may be valuable.

The local share market will react to gains on Wall Street as US investors digested data from a key inflation report.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.01 per cent to end at 5,648.40 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.13 per cent to 17,713.62 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55 per cent to 41,563.08 points.

Australian share futures fell 18 points to 8031.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index on Friday rose 46.8 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 8,091.9, its highest finish since its all-time closing high on August 1.

 

Poppy Johnston
(Australian Associated Press)