Major cost-of-living measures aren’t on the cards in the federal budget update because of a $25 billion hit to the books, as data reveals new drags on the bottom line.

The mid-year economic and fiscal outlook will show more than $16 billion in automatic spending increases and $8.8 billion in “unavoidable spending” such as extending programs.

But $14.6 billion in savings and reallocated spending is expected to limit the damage to the bottom line.

The government’s annual tax expenditure statement showed superannuation concessions cost the budget the most, with $51.4 billion in foregone revenue.

Older Australians got the most benefit from super earnings tax handouts, showing people aged between 55 to 69 were generally higher income earners and had longer to accumulate balances.

The government’s focus is on rolling out cost-of-living measures already announced, including tax cuts and energy bill relief, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said ahead of the release of the budget update on Wednesday.

But the number of decisions taken but not yet announced, which is code for new policies, “won’t stand out”.

“We keep that constant review from budget to budget and when we can afford to do more to help people doing it tough, we generally try to make room for that,” Dr Chalmers said in Canberra on Tuesday.

“It won’t be particularly unusual compared to earlier budgets and updates when it comes to cost-of-living relief – the focus is on rolling out the very substantial cost-of-living health that we’ve already budgeted for.”

The mid-year economic and fiscal outlook is set to reveal a budget in deficit, predicted to be $33 billion by Deloitte Access Economics, and a sea of red into the future.

Blowouts have been blamed on infrastructure, extending funding to programs where money hadn’t been allocated and increases to the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

Weakness in the Chinese economy will smash Australian mineral exports by more than $100 billion and result in an $8.5 billion reduction in company tax receipts over four years.

Savings will come from aged care reform, reallocations within Defence and a renegotiated vaccine supply agreement.

Consumer sentiment dipped marginally in December after rising strongly from the middle of the year, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index found.

Dr Chalmers blamed the dip on Black Friday sales at the end of November, which increased the index’s volatility.

Household budgets continue to be under pressure from a higher cost of living and interest rates, CreditorWatch’s chief economist Ivan Colhoun said.

“Slower inflation does not mean lower prices,” he said.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said the government’s “reckless spending” was resulting in budget red ink as far as the eye can see and contributing to high inflation and interest rates.

“This is the highest level of government spending we’ve seen,” he said

The coalition was opposed to more than $100 billion in spending, he said.

Dr Chalmers hit back, questioning where they could make cuts with a lot of the increased spending automatic adjustments to indexation and funding increases, in response to increased demand for government payments.

This occurs regardless of government decisions.

It includes $3.6 billion in extra payments through the aged pension, $3.1 billion in childcare subsidy payments, $2.6 billion in schools funding, $2.3 billion in health benefits and $1.8 billion in additional payments for veterans.

 

Dominic Giannini, Jacob Shteyman and Tess Ikonomou
(Australian Associated Press)