Workers in the private sector are still clocking robust pay growth but the pace has been gradually slowing over the past year, reflecting a softening jobs market.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show average private sector wages lifting 0.7 per cent in the June quarter, down from 0.9 per cent in the March quarter.

ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquardt said this was the lowest rise for a June quarter since 2021 and the equal lowest rise for any quarter since December quarter 2021.

The 0.8 per cent lift in the overall wage price index over the quarter was led by the public sector, which increased 0.9 per cent, up from 0.6 per cent in the March quarter.

This reflected synchronised timing of pay increases in the Commonwealth public sector, Ms Marquardt said.

“Pay rises for these jobs had previously been paid at different times across quarters depending on the timing of individual agency agreements,” she said.

On an annual basis, the wage price index held at 4.1 per cent, the same result as in March.

Expectations were for 0.9 per cent annual growth over the quarter, and a four per cent annual rise.

Professional, scientific and technical services, public administration and safety and construction were the most significant industry contributors to quarterly wage growth.

Oxford Economics Australia head of macroeconomic forecasting Sean Langcake said the steady slowing in the pace of private sector wage growth was consistent with slackening labour market conditions.

“The Reserve Bank of Australia will be somewhat relieved to see wage pressures subsiding,” he said.

“However, absent an improvement in productivity growth, the current pace of wage growth is still a little too strong for inflation to return to target quickly,” he added.

The central bank struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at its August board meeting, keeping interest rates on hold but warning inflation was still high and pushing back on expectations of near-term cuts.

Price indicators in National Australia Bank’s July business survey signalled further easing in inflationary pressures, with growth in purchase costs easing and not far from the pre-COVID pace.

Tuesday’s survey also revealed the first improvement in business conditions in five months, even as confidence levels fell.

Yet for consumers, sentiment was on the improve, based on the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey.

Westpac head of Australian macro-forecasting Matthew Hassan said consumers were feeling a little more optimistic about the state of their finances yet sentiment was still low.

“Consumers breathed a small sigh of relief in August as the RBA board left interest rates unchanged and the support coming from tax cuts and other fiscal measures became more apparent,” Mr Hassan said.

The latest update on consumer sentiment comes as Australia Institute analysis reveals the wealth of Australia’s richest 200 people almost tripled as a proportion of national gross domestic product over the past two decades.

The wealth of those on the Financial Review’s Rich 200 list rose from the equivalent of 8.4 per cent of national GDP in 2004, to 23.7 per cent of GDP by 2024, the institute’s analysis indicates.

 

Poppy Johnston
(Australian Associated Press)